www.stand4islam.blogspot.com: Q&A: Iran Election Crisis

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In recent times a plethora of misconceptions, misrepresentation and myths have been forged about Islam
and Muslims. Many western influentials from politicians, policymakers to judges have taken it upon
themselves to undermine the Islamic beliefs, values and rules so to make it palatable to their
egotistic minds and the secular liberal thoughts.

This blog is dedicated:-

1. To argue the point for Islam in its belief and systems and to refute the misconceptions.
2. To expose the weakness and contradictions of all forms of secularism.

20 Jun 2009

Q&A: Iran Election Crisis

1. What has caused the current crisis leading to huge demonstrations on the streets of Tehran?

The crisis has been caused by the outcome of the elections which took place on June 12th 2009.
The results of the elections were announced on June 13th 2009 by the Interior Minister Sadiq Mahsouli. He confirmed that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad had been re-elected to a second term after gaining 62% of the votes. Leading reformist candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi gained a mere 33%. Mahsouli added that the turnout approached 85%, with a little more than 39 million of 46.2 million eligible voters casting their ballots. Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei immediately issued a statement in which he praised the turnout and called on the public and the challengers to support the winner.

The European Union and several western countries expressed concern over alleged irregularities during the vote, and some analysts and journalists from the United States and European based media voiced doubts about the authenticity of the results.

Mousavi issued a statement saying, "I'm warning that I won't surrender to this charade," and he urged his backers to fight the decision as well as to avoid committing acts of violence. Protests, in favor of Mousavi and against the alleged fraud, then broke out in Tehran.

In essence the Western world and the opposition reformist candidates oppose the outcome of the elections.

Is there any truth in the claims?

A number of irregularities have been reported and some electoral engineering cannot be rules out. However the resounding silence from powerful figures like Rafsanjani and Larijani is a strong indication that the election results and claims of fraud are not compelling enough. The claims that the election was rigged will be difficult to verify - if there is an investigation. The final vote breakdown gives Ahmadinejad a huge margin of 11 million votes which even in a re-count will be very difficult to change.

Without an investigation it is difficult to decide if there was any vote engineering. However it is difficult to see how Ahmadinejad could have stolen the election by such a huge margin. To achieve such a feat he would have needed the cooperation of a large number of teams to have rigged polling booths. The risks involved would have been huge as Ahmadinejad has many powerful enemies who would have jumped on the opportunity to use this to their advantage. Mousavi after five days submitted his complaints to the Guardian council, however the mechanics of electoral fraud that he claims robbed him of Iran's presidency have still not materialised.

What makes the claims of the defeated reformists much weaker is Ahmadinejad's attendance of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit a few days after the disputed election result. This would not have been possible without the agreement of the supreme leader Ali Khomeini and other heavy weights in the regime.

The first Friday sermon after the election will in all likelihood bring to an end any possibility of continued demonstrations and a re-election. The supreme leader in his Friday sermon at Tehran University rebuked Mousavi for not accepting the election result and for allowing the demonstrations to take place. This in effect was a public endorsement of the election result by Iran's supreme body.

Currently the defeated reformists candidates claim the entire election is against the sentiments of Iranians, the majority of whom opposed incumbent Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and his policies but whose will was thwarted by a falsification of the electoral results by an unpopular and dictatorial ruler who made it appear that he had won the election massively rather than lost it.

How much of the struggle is between the conservatives and reformists?

The conservatives rose to prominence for engineering the infamous Islamic revolution in 1979. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was reportedly one of the masterminds behind the embassy hostage crisis in 1979 where the American embassy was taken over in support of the Iranian Revolution. Iran went through a period of international isolation by the international community, this led to the trust between Iran and the West reaching unprecedented lows. The death of Ayatollah Rahullah Khomini led to a number of clerics calling for an end to the international isolation and re-engagement with the West. Such calls for reform were led by Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani and Mohammad Khatami and such calls continue to cause a fault line in Iranian politics.

Mohammad Khatami withdrew as candidate from the election race and placed his support behind Mousavi in order to ensure reformist votes were not fractured. This election was a battle between the conservative candidate who believes in the Islamic revolution and the reformist candidate who believes Iran needs to move away from the Islamic revolution and begin engaging with the West. Currently the Iranian regime and its key organs are controlled by the conservatives.

The days after the election result has led to many demonstrations which have called for reform. For some time it seemed that Mousavi might be able to call for an uprising in Tehran. But the moment passed when Ahmadinejad's security forces on motorcycles intervened. And that leaves the West with its worst-case scenario: a democratically elected anti-liberal.

The Western media have given the electoral dispute much coverage and have presented it as the next colour revolution. Whilst both leading candidates represent opposite sides to where Iran should be going, the lines between them are today much blurred as both groups have been pursuing similar pragmatic policies.

Barack Obama's interview with CNBC's John Harwood was very telling: "The difference between Ahmadinejad and Mousavi in terms of their actual policies may not be as great as has been advertised. Either way, we are going to be dealing with an Iranian regime that has historically been hostile to the United States."

Whilst in the past the demarcation between the reformists and conservatives was very clear, today this is not the case as both are pursuing similar polices. Whilst there are individuals from both groups who despise each other this is more personal rather then the conservative/reformists axis. Hence the despising of the reformist Ali Akbar Rafsanjani is more due to his corruption rather than him being a conservative.

The Western Media are reporting a revolution is in the making, is this the case?

The Western media have engaged in reporting that can only be considered over reporting and very biased coverage. The idea of a revolution in the making has come from Western reporting with slogans such as the twitter revolution, the Ipod generation, face book revolution, blog revolution and green revolution. Western coverage of the elections is rooted in the old axis of standing against the Islamic revolution and supporting the reformists who want a free and liberal Iran. The West has engaged with Iran on this basis and continues to do so.

The myth the Western world follow is that the fall the shah was due to a mass movement of people demanding liberalisation. If such a group of reformists are supported by the West they would become majority and rule the country. Western reporters believe that anyone who listens to beyonce owns an iPod, has a blog and knows what it means to Twitter must be an enthusiastic supporter of Western liberalism. Such individuals can be found among the professional classes in Tehran, as well as among students. Many speak English, making them accessible to Western journalists, diplomats and intelligence services. They are the ones who can speak to Westerners, and they are to speak to Westerners. It is from such people Westerners receive the information that a revolution is on hand. However such people are not the majority. Most Iranians are poor and unable to afford an Ipod let alone a phone and are content with Ahmadinejad's fiery anti Western rhetoric.

The defeated candidates also used the polls to prove their case. Almost all polls conducted predicted Ahmedinijad to lose the election. He had a dismal term and very few of his previous campaign policies never materialised, unemployment is at all time highs and Iran's energy infrastructure is crumbling. Supporters of his opponent, both inside and outside Iran, were stunned at the election result. The US based Strategic Forecasting - the intelligence agency reported: "A poll revealed that former Iranian Prime Minister Mir Hossein Mousavi was beating Ahmadinejad. It is, of course, interesting to meditate on how you could conduct a poll in a country where phones are not universal, and making a call once you have found a phone can be a trial. A poll therefore would probably reach people who had phones and lived in Tehran and other urban areas. Among those, Mousavi probably did win. But outside Tehran, and beyond persons easy to poll, the numbers turned out quite different."

Abbas Barzegar, reporting for The Guardian, has described the Western reaction to the election results as evidence of wishful thinking. Western journalists, Barzegar argued, ‘have been reporting primarily from the wealthier areas of the greater cities, ignoring the wide support Ahmadinejad enjoys in poor and rural communities.'

However Iran-Western relations are changing and were first initiated by the Bush government. Iran continues to cooperate with the US and protect its interests. In Iraq Tehran continues to extend support to the leader of SCIRI, Ayatollah Hakim and the Badr Brigade who have become the lynchpin of US plans for Southern Iraq. In Afghanistan, Iran runs extensive reconstruction and training programs in Kabul, Herat and Kandahar. Thus far, Iran has successfully prevented American embarrassment in both countries. Whilst Western reporting is still restricted to the historical distrust Barack Obama plans to commence direct engagement with Tehran within the coming weeks.

Are the demonstrations evidence against the Islamic revolution and Islam itself?

Many Iranians in 1979 mobilised together to bring an end the rule of the Shah. His failed economic policies and authoritarian rule became the unifying factor between, reformists, Marxists, socialists, students, professors and anarchists. However the Islamic revolution brought nothing in terms of economic development, Khomeini began a process of securing his grip on the whole nation and exiled, assassinated and arrested many of those who brought him to power. The disastrous 8 year war with Iraq consumed the Iran economy creating even more poverty than prior to the revolution.

The Iran economy has long relied on its Oil and energy sectors. Iran has the world's largest gas field, the world's largest gas reserves after Russia and the world's largest oil reserves after Saudi Arabia. However Iran's 1940's constructed energy infrastructure is crumbling and inflation and unemployment is rampant and out of control. Ahmadinejad came to power on back of many economic promises that have not materialised. He has attempted to deal with this through a massive public spending programme and subsidised oil and gas - such subsidies are not sustainable. In 2007 due to massive mismanagement of the economy Ahmadinejad began the rationing of gas which caused riots.

The demonstrations that have filled the news stories of the West represent those who want change due to Ahmadinejad's economic failure. He has reneged on all his economic promises and created an economic bomb that will go off very soon. The election victory is seen by many in Iran as a continuation of such failed policies. Ahmadinejad has done nothing for the 3 million unemployed. While the catalyst for these demonstrations was an election, the election issues were the economy and unemployment. The Western media continues to propagate the demonstrators represent Iranian public sentiment, they fail to see the economic legacy that haunts the country or a very important issue that day by day is becoming even clearer - the demonstrations are simply supporters of candidates who were massively defeated.

[Answered by Adnan Khan]

No comments:

What they said...

“Islam represented the greatest military power on earth…It was the foremost economic power in the world…It had achieved the highest level so far in human history, in the arts and sciences of civilization...Islam in contrast created a world civilization, poly-ethnic, multiracial, international, one might even say intercontinental.”

[Bernard Lewis, Professor of Near Eastern Studies, Orientalist and Historian, 2001]

"There was once a civilization that was the greatest in the world. It was able to create a continental super-state that stretched from ocean to ocean, and from northern climes to tropics and deserts…the civilization I'm talking about was the Islamic world from the year 800 to 1600… Although we are often unaware of our indebtedness to this other civilization, its gifts are very much a part of our heritage"

[Carly Fiorina, ex-CEO of Hewlett-Packard, 2001]

"For the first three centuries of its existence (circ. A.D 650-1000) the realm of Islam was the most civilized and progressive portion of the world. Studded with splendid cities, gracious mosques and quiet universities where the wisdom of the ancient world was preserved and appreciated, the Moslem world offered a striking contrast to the Christian West, then sunk in the night of the Dark Ages."

[Lothrop Stoddard, Ph.D (Harvard), American political theorist and historian, 1932]

"Medieval Islam was technologically advanced and open to innovation. It achieved far higher literacy rates than in contemporary Europe;it assimilated the legacy of classical Greek civilization to such a degree that many classical books are now known to us only through Arabic copies. It invented windmills ,trigonometry, lateen sails and made major advances in metallurgy, mechanical and chemical engineering and irrigation methods. In the middle-ages the flow of technology was overwhelmingly from Islam to Europe rather from Europe to Islam. Only after the 1500's did the net direction of flow begin to reverse."

[Jared Diamond, UCLA sociologist and Author, 1997]

"No other society has such a record of success in uniting in an equality of status, of opportunity and endeavour so many and so varied races of mankind. The great Muslim communities of Africa, India and Indonesia, perhaps also the small community in Japan, show that Islam has still the power to reconcile apparently irreconcilable elements of race and tradition. If ever the opposition of the great societies of the East and west is to be replaced by cooperation, the mediation of Islam is an indispensable condition."

[Hamilton Alexander Rosskeen Gibb, Professor at Harvard University, 1932]

“The Muhammadan Law which is binding on all -- from the crowned head to the meanest subject is a law interwoven with a system of the wisest, the most learned and the most enlightened jurisprudence that ever existed in the world.”

[Edmund Burke, British Statesman and Philosopher, 1789]

"The Exile here is not like in our homeland. The Turks hold respectable Jews in esteem. Here and in Alexandria, Egypt, Jews are the chief officers and administrators of the customs, and the king’s revenues. No injuries are perpetuated against them in all the empire. Only this year, in consequence of the extraordinary expenditure caused by the war against Shah Tahmsap al-Sufi, were the Jews required to make advances of loans to the princes."

[David dei Rossi, Jewish Traveller 17CE, quoted by Norman A. Stillman, The Jews of Arab Lands]

"The notable religious tolerance towards Christians and Jew under Muslim rule had given way to the uncompromising zealotry of Spanish Inquisition. Jews and Muslims thus fled Spain with large numbers of Jews immigrating to the Ottoman Empire which was known for its tolerance to the Jews."

[Graham Fuller, Author and former CIA, 1995]

“If there is much misunderstanding in the West about the nature of Islam, there is also much ignorance about the debt our own culture and civilization owe to the Islamic world. It is a failure, which stems, I think, from the straightjacket of history, which we have inherited. The medieval Islamic world, from central Asia to the shores of the Atlantic, was a world where scholars and men of learning flourished. But because we have tended to see Islam as the enemy of the West, as an alien culture, society, and systems of beliefs, we have tended to ignore or erase its great relevance to our own history”

[Charles Philip Arthur George, HRH The Prince of Wales, 1993]

"...Not being subject to the Sharia, Jews and Christians were free to go to their own religious authorities for adjudication of disputes; but in many cases they went instead to the [Muslim] Qadi"

[Richard W. Bulliet, Professor of History and Author, 2004]

"Here in the land of the Turks we have nothing to complain of. We possess great fortunes; much gold and silver are in our hands. We are not oppressed by heavy taxes and our commerce is free and unhindered. Rich are the fruits of the earth. Everything is cheap and each one of us lives in freedom. Here a Jew is not compelled to wear a yellow star as a badge of shame as is the case in Germany where even wealth and great fortune is a curse for a Jew because he therewith arouses jealousy among the Christians and they devise all kinds of slander against him to rob him of his gold. Arise my brethren, gird up your loins, collect up your forces and come to us."

[In his book 'Constantinople', Philip Mansel quotes a rabbi in Turkey writing to his brethren in Europe where they were facing increasing persecution after 1453]

"Praise be to the beneficent God for his mercy towards me! Kings of the earth, to whom his [the Caliph’s] magnificence and power are known, bring gifts to him, conciliating his favour by costly presents, such as the king of the Germans, the king of the Gebalim, the king of Constantinople, and others. All their gifts pass through my hands, and I am charged with making gifts in return. (Let my lips express praise to the God in heaven who so far extends his loving kindness towards me without any merit of my own, but in the fullness of his mercies.) I always ask the ambassadors of these monarchs about our brethren the Jews, the remnant of the captivity, whether they have heard anything concerning the deliverance of those who have pined in bondage and had found no rest."

[Hasdai Ibn Shaprut (915-990 CE) Jewish physician, chief minister of Islamic Caliphate in Cordova, 'The Jewish Caravan']

"In Baghdad there are about forty thousand Jews, and they dwell in security, prosperity, and honour under the great Caliph [al-Mustanjid, 1160-70 CE], and amongst them are great sages, the Heads of the Academies engaged in the study of the Law…’"

[Benjamin of Tudela, Rabbi in Baghdad in the year 1168 CE, 'The Jew in the Medieval World']

"Those Eastern thinkers of the ninth century laid down, on the basis of their theology, the principle of the Rights of Man, in those very terms, comprehending the rights of individual liberty, and of inviolability of person and property; described the supreme power in Islam, or Califate, as based on a contract, implying conditions of capacity and performance, and subject to cancellation if the conditions under the contract were not fulfilled; elaborated a Law of War of which the humane, chivalrous prescriptions would have put to the blush certain belligerents in the Great War; expounded a doctrine of toleration of non-Moslem creeds so liberal that our West had to wait a thousand years before seeing equivalent principles adopted.

[Leon Ostorog, French Jurist]

"The debt of our science to that of the Arabs does not consist in startling discoveries or revolutionary theories; science owes a great deal more to Arab culture, it owes its existence"

[Robert Briffault, Novelist and Historian, 1928]

"The only effective link between the old and the new science is afforded by the Arabs. The dark ages come as an utter gap in the scientific history of Europe, and for more than a thousand years there was not a scientific man of note except in Arabia"

[Oliver Joseph Lodge, Writer and Professor of Physics, 1893]

“Thus, when Muslims crossed the straits of Gibraltar from North Africa in 711 and invaded the Iberian Peninsula, Jews welcomed them as liberators from Christian Persecution.”

[Zion Zohar, Jewish scholar at Florida International University, 2005]

“Throughout much of the period in question, Arabic served as the global language of scholarship, and learned men of all stripes could travel widely and hold serious and nuanced discussions in this lingua franca. Medieval Western scholars who wanted access to the latest findings also needed to master the Arabic Tongue or work from translations by those who had done so.”

[Jonathan Lyons, Author, Writer and Lecturer, 2009]