
Egyptian Presidential elections – With Hosni Mubarak is on his death bed there has been talk for some time about the possible successor to Mubarak, who has been president since 1981. Egypt has played a central role in protecting US interests in the region ever since the US helped overthrow King Farook in 1953. Egypt legitimised Israel’s usurpation of Palestine; it is also the strongest nation in Africa and the Middle East. As the Iraq conflict has shown the US is much more dependent on regional nations to protect its interests then ever before as instruments of foreign policy.
Currently the most likely candidate to succeed to the president is Hosni Mubarak’s son Gamal Mubarak. He has visited the US on a number of occasions and has met the leading figures of the US Congress including Senator John Kerry, the Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee as well as Howard Peerman, the Chairman of the House of Representative's Committee on International Affairs. From this it appears the US and the Egypt’s ruling party is creating the conditions to facilitate Gamal Mubarak's ascension as the next president to succeed his father.
Ayman Nour of the Wafd party is the only other candidate with any possibility of becoming president. This is because it appears the European nations are supporting him in order to counter the US in Egypt. The Europeans intensely demanded Ayman Nour’s release when he was arrested for demanding amendments to the Egyptian constitution. They demanded he be released and objected to his detention right from the first day of his arrest and had even maintained contact with him during his detention. The Reuters reported in February 2007: “Edward MacMillan Scott, the head of the European Parliament and its special envoy for its "Democratic and Human Rights" tried yesterday to meet Ayman Nour but was prevented from seeing him though he was made to wait for an hour and a half. MacMillan Scott called on the European Union to take a more firm and stronger view towards the Egyptian regime and pointed to the fact that the regime had violated Ayman Nour's liberties.”
There is a struggle between Europe and the US over the successor to Mubarak. However due to the US influence over Egypt, the person who appears to be most likely to succeed Hosni Mubarak is his son, Gamal Mubarak.
Sudan Referendum, January 2011 – America brokered the Naivasha peace accord in 2005, which culminated in the eventual termination of the civil war between the main rebel group, the Sudan People's Liberation Movement/Army (SPLM/A) and the Sudanese government. The terms of the agreement included a variety of measures that gave the South autonomy and the prospects of secession in 2011 when the deal expires. America actively aided and supported the minority Christian rebels in Southern Sudan both diplomatically and militarily by providing them with arms without which the rebels would not have had the success they enjoyed in forcing the Sudanese government to pursue a peace settlement.
To counter this both Britain and France provided arms to Chad, which supports and arms the rebels in Darfur, creating the Darfur issue. Both nations have successfully internationalised the issue of Darfur and complicated US plans to separate the South of Sudan and turn it into an independent nation. Hilary Clinton told an audience at the Council on Foreign that it was "inevitable" that the south would vote to break away and form an independent state. She also said that the US, the African Union and other international partners are trying to ensure the vote goes smoothly. She described the secession as "The [north-south] situation is a ticking time bomb of enormous consequence."
Their still remains many issues with the cessation of the South. The proposed border between North and South Sudan crosses through the oil fields of Sudan, without any agreement on the distribution of the nation’s energy wealth. Whichever way the oil wealth goes it will in all likelihood lead to conflict in Sudan.
Turkish Parliamentary Elections, July 2011 – Ever since the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) rose to power it has worked to counter the influence of the secularists led by the armed forces. It has worked to weaken the army’s hold on Turkey and expand the government’s penetration of the National Security Council. In the name of democratisation the AKP has been pushing through various reforms to alter the balance of power in Turkey. The AKP has changed the composition of the judiciary, long seen as a staunch secular bastion. The AKP has also grown closer to the US. Turkey has become indispensible to America, coming to America’s aid in its time of need in Iraq. Turkey has also protected American interests in Iran and the Middle East.
Turkey has played a central role in the indirect negotiations between Palestine and Israel, aiding the progress towards the two-state solution. If the AKP is able to increase its members in the national assembly this will make it much easier to pass far reaching reforms which will remove the armies hold on the nation and weaken the secular hold of Turkey. The army has traditionally undertaken a coup when its position was under threat but the grip of the AKP over the national assembly and victory in two referendums have made this option difficult. In July 2011 the struggle over Turkey will reach a critical phase between pro-British secularists on one side and Pro-US secularists led by the AKP on the other side, the outcome will have major global implications.
US troop withdrawal from Iraq, December 2011 – Troop withdrawal has become synonymous with success for the US public. Whilst the US reduced its troops in 2010 to 50,000 it does still have over 90,000 contractors in the country, doing the work the military did. With US elections scheduled for 2012 and with the political architecture established upon a number of compromises, bribes and secret deals if the ethno-sectarian differences are not overcome, the absence of US troops which has kept the Iraqi system intact may find Iraq falling apart once again.
Nord Stream natural gas pipeline - The Russo–German gas pipeline, the planned natural gas offshore pipeline from Vyborg in Russia to Greifswald in Germany is scheduled to begin delivering its first gas supplies in 2011. Once fully operational it will be the longest sub-sea pipeline in the world. Most of Europe’s energy and infrastructure is directly from Russian fields and delivered through Russian infrastructure. Germany and France are the most dependent on Russian energy. This pipeline will make Germany – Europe’s heavyweight even more dependent on Russian energy. Europe’s attempt to circumvent Russia’s oil reserves will suffer a severe set back once this pipeline goes online.
Afghanistan Troop drawdown, July 2011 – Obama in his election campaign promised to reduce troops in 2011 as his counter intelligence strategy would have been in operation for over a year by the summer of 2011. However the strategy in Afghanistan has been a complete failure and with general elections scheduled for 2012 in the US, Obama will find sticking to this deadline near impossible. Whilst troop withdrawal has been linked to political stabilisation, Obama may find troop reduction impossible at a time when troop withdrawal has become synonymous to success. At the NATO summit in November 2010 the transfer of power in the first provinces by NATO’s ISAF forces to the Afghan side was agreed to take place by July 2011. However NATO said it would help the Afghan forces in the most dangerous regions until 2014. This means this withdrawal date at most is just to make good on promises the US has made regarding withdrawal. The US plans to withdraw from safe areas, where there is little resistance by the militants. But the US and ISAF forces will remain until 2014 in the most dangerous areas. Hence the July 2011 deadline has already been undermined.
Nigeria presidential elections, January 2011 – Nigeria has risen in importance for the US as it attempts to diversify its oil dependency from Middle Eastern oil – Nigeria is central to this as it represents an alternative source to that of the Middle East. Nigeria was a British colony; Britain maintained its grip through producing a large share of Nigeria oil wealth through Royal Dutch Shell, which today produces 50% of Nigeria’s oil. Nigeria’s military has protected the oil infrastructure, which has protected British interests in the country. Nigeria’s military has ruled the country for most of its history since independence.
The US entry into Nigeria began when it called for elections in 1997. The US has attempted to counter the British grip through democracy which would weaken the militaries hold on the nation which has protected British interests. As the military has been under the British influence for most of its post independence history, the call for democracy is to oust the military that has run the country thus protecting British interests.
When Obasanjo came to power in 1997 he dismissed over 200 army officers. Then in the 2007 elections Umaru Yar'Adua, came into power in an election that was condemned by the international community as being massively flawed. This is only the second civilian election in Nigeria’s post colonial history. Umaru Yar'Adua was a protégé of Obasanjo and died in May 2010. This led to Goodluck Jonathan being appointed as president until the elections of 2011.
The struggle over influence in Nigeria is set to be intense as the US continues to use democracy as a front to gain influence over Nigeria’s coveted oil wealth and reduce its dependency on Middle Eastern oil. Whilst the British attempt to maintain their grip on the nation through the weakening hand of the army.
China Elections, Early 2012 – Whilst a change in Chinas leadership is due in 2012 and not 2011, however it is most likely 2011 will be the year major moves will take place in anticipation of the elections in 2012. China is set to experience a major leadership turnover at the 18th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party in 2012. Current top leaders, including President Hu Jintao, Premier Wen Jiabao, and Chairman of the National People’s Congress Wu Bangguo, are all expected to retire. The Politburo and its Standing Committee will be repopulated with a large number of new faces.
There is a struggle at the heart of China’s politics with two factions wrestling for control. There is current President Hu Jintao’s Youth Leaguers, who are more concerned about the growing inequities between the rich and poor in China and providing a better social safety net for those areas of China negatively impacted by its quick economic rise. Then there is former President Jiang Zemin’s “Shanghai Clique.” The Shanghai Clique stresses economic development, high GDP, and continuing China’s integration into the global economy. Currently, the Chinese Communist Party leadership is evenly split between the two factions.
The outcome will decide exactly how China deals with the US and its role as a world power in the short to medium term.
US presidential elections, December 2012 – With the Iowa caucuses in January 2012, 2011 will really be the year Obama will need to make good on his campaign promises as 2012 will be election year. Obama made many promises in his election campaign and only a year in he was deeply unpopular for continually compromising on his promises and his handing of the economy.
With the loss of the legislative chamber in the Mid-terms, Obama may very well be in very weak position to contest the elections. This will have a major impact on America’s already waning position in the world.
[Taken from Book ‘Strategic Estimate 2011’ by Adnan Khan]
No comments:
Post a Comment