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(1) The war of fitna in the north. US naval presence assists the flow of arms to the Houthis only days ago an Iranian ship carrying weapons was captured by Yemeni coast gaurds but was able to avoid American detection! Eritrea houses training camps for Houthi fighters and somehow the passage across the red sea remains safe! The international picture emerging of a state with jets, tanks and artillery destroying villages, markets and schools, resulting in mass refugees is a bad portrait for the President. It is a matter of time before the calls for war crimes are heard. (Since the leader of the Houthi undertook religious education in Iran, the Houthi movement proclaim Itna Ashara (Twelvers) which is not the case of the wider Zaydi community).
(2) Piracy. For sure since the US naval presence piracy has ascended and become more organised. The impact on fishing, Yemen's second largest export sector after oil and gas is devastating. The impact on trade, shipping and freight too is unbearable, but also it undermines Yemen's plans for the Aden free port and offshore drilling keeping Yemen from implementing its development plans.
(3) Support for the Southern Movement going back to the 1994 war. Salem Al Baidh coming to his conclusion that unification was a mistake spent the last 4 months of his tenure as Deputy President in America taking instructions from his new master. Upon his return a pre-planned breakaway attempt was launched, but the British moved too with their agents to maintain unity. The US immediately called for the internalisation of the crisis through UN involvement as if the matter was between 2 states. On the other hand Britain and Europe called for an end of fighting in what they considered an internal dispute. Increasingly we are witnessing the slogans of human rights to throw weight behind the Southern Movement.
(4) The ties between the Jihadis and the military are well known. It was General Ali Moshen (the president's maternal brother) who organised the Jihadi movement to Afghanistan and elsewhere in the 1980s and early 90s. Those arrested for USS Cole claim they were instructed by the military that provided them with the coordinates, this is seen as an attempt to push America away from her desire and request for a naval base in the Gulf of Aden although she remains hungry for this and sees through the Presidents short term tactics. The Jihadi remarkable group escape 2 and half years ago from individual cells located beneath ground in a complex security compound just before the arrival of US interrogators left all in Yemen to realise that the escape was facilitated by the security services itself. As such the Jihadis at large remain under the radar of the government. These latest US strikes bare similarity to Pakistan and Iraq and will lead to chaos and killings of the innocent and will cause Jihadis to scatter out of detection of the Yemeni radar. Can the Yemeni military failing in the north, impotent against the pirates and weary towards the Southern Movement cope with a 4th front? Will America succeed in turning the Jihadis and military against one another in a consuming war of attrition as she has succeeded in the north? Hideously the Presidents only answer is to facilitate the deterioration of Yemen. It is clear the days of the President are numbered, will the British remove him and in doing so buy themselves time or will change come at the hands of the Americans. In either case Yemen is heading towards increasingly hard times and suffering.
[Commentary made by Abu Abdullah, December 2009]
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